|
Feb 13, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
Applied Materials stock rose ~8% to a record high after delivering an upbeat sales forecast and settling a Commerce Department investigation. The company explicitly signaled that demand for AI and memory semiconductors is fueling equipment purchases. The settlement removes a significant legal overhang, allowing the market to focus purely on the AI infrastructure tailwinds. LONG as a pick-and-shovel play on the continued build-out of AI and memory chip capacity. Cyclical downturn in the broader semiconductor equipment market. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Steady as Treasury Yields Slip After C...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
Coinbase missed estimates on Transaction Revenue ($983M vs $1.02B) and Subscription Revenue. The stock is down in after-hours, compounding a year-to-date decline. The "miss across the board" on revenue drivers, combined with Bitcoin failing to hold $70k, creates a negative feedback loop. Without the hype of rising crypto prices, Coinbase's core transaction business is underperforming expectations. SHORT (Earnings Miss/Sector Weakness). A sudden resurgence in Bitcoin price driving retail volume. |
Bloomberg Markets
Software Selloff Deepens on AI Fears | Closin...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
Applied Materials reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.38 (beating est. $2.21) and net sales of $7.01B (beating est. $6.86B). The stock surged ~8-10% in after-hours. The anchor notes that "everybody who's anybody in the semi space are customers." While software and logistics are being sold off on AI fears, the hardware infrastructure layer (semiconductor equipment) remains the primary beneficiary of capex spending. AMAT is the index proxy for this hardware demand. LONG (Momentum/Fundamental Beat). Cyclical downturn in semiconductor capex outside of AI. |
Bloomberg Markets
Software Selloff Deepens on AI Fears | Closin...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
WATCH
|
"BuzzFeed doing this thing about all these things that people can't afford anymore and it's everything from manicures to concert tickets to eating out." The "affordability aspect" is becoming the dominant driver of consumer behavior. This creates a bifurcation where companies offering explicit value (like MCD) win, while "affordable luxury" or mid-tier discretionary spending (manicures, concerts) may see volume declines. Watch for a rotation out of mid-tier discretionary into deep value staples. If the economy improves rapidly, consumers may trade back up, leaving deep value plays with lower margins. |
Bloomberg Markets
McDonald’s serves up $5 value meals, and the ...
|
|
Feb 11, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
Ed Yardeni calls the current market environment a "scramble for immunity," noting Gold is recouping losses and back in an upward trajectory. As "AI scare" trades hit specific sectors and rates stay high, capital is rotating into non-correlated, hard assets for safety. Gold is acting as the hedge against both tech volatility and geopolitical risk. LONG. A sharply strengthening US Dollar or rising real yields. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Little Changed as Yields Climb on Stro...
|
|
Feb 11, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
"Real estate services stocks dropping sharply as investors assess the sector's vulnerability to the newest crop of AI applications... that could disrupt many industries." This is the "AI Scare" trade. The market is inferring that AI agents and automation will drastically reduce the headcount needed for professional services and the physical office footprint required to house them. These legacy intermediaries are viewed as the "losers" in an efficiency-driven economy. SHORT. Sentiment has shifted from "Return to Office" hopes to "AI Obsolescence" fears. AI adoption may be slower than priced in; these firms may successfully pivot to consulting on AI integration for physical spaces. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Little Changed as Yields Climb on Stro...
|